My Take On Bitcoin & Ethereum

My Take On Bitcoin & Ethereum

Good day, good day, all.
Just a quick soundcheck if
you don’t mind, please guys.
If you can let me know you can
hear me that’ll be fantastic.
Usually a slight lag here so I’m sure
I’ll see the messages
coming through in a moment.
Just want to go through
and have a look at Bitcoin
and Ethereum, the two
obviously big dogs of the space
by quite a considerable amount.
Ethereum is still running
two times over XRP.
Good, looks like everybody’s got me
loud and clear, excellent.
Okay, let’s jump up to the charts.
Now, I’m not putting myself
in the corner on this one
simply because I’ve not
shaved my head or my face
and I’m dressed like a bit of a hobo
as I wasn’t really expecting
to go live tonight.
So anyway, let’s get going
if you’ve got any questions,
please this is an interactive session.
Make sure you ask me,
I’m more than happy to
answer your questions.
See what’s coming through and you know,
have a conversation.
See what you want to look at.
All right, cool.
So I’m gonna do Bitcoin first.
I’m looking at the BitFenix
chart right here as it stands
and of course just hanging
out around that $10,000
mark right now.
Not too much going on there.
If you can’t see, I’m not sure,
I think it might be your end
as I can definitely see things my end.
So maybe just restart, cool.
All right so we’re sitting
around 10,000 right now.
A couple things to know, first of all,
I’m gonna start at the weekly
here and move my way out.
If you look at this weekly
chart it’s pretty messy, right.
It’s not really showing me a great deal.
To be fair, there’s a couple
of different levels right now
on this weekly that I’m interested in.
The first is this low.
If it breaks down through these lows
with this lower high potentially
then we’ve got a lower high
and low, i.e. a weekly downtrend.
Let’s see, one month, see how that looks.
Looking at the monthly right now
of course this was a
decent pullback, right.
That was our pull back and that pull back,
how deep did we go there?
I haven’t even looked at this.
We went down 83% from
the highest, fair enough.
But look at what we did see.
A huge run-up, it’s not too obscene
to see a decent pullback like that.
The monthly, look it could
certainly pull back further.
I mean, everybody will,
anybody who’s followed me
for a little while will
understand or know that I use
a zone called the cradle
area or the cradle zone
between the 10 and 20
period moving average.
So if it pulls back into
there that gets us into around
that six, seven, to
7,000-ish, that sort of level.
So yeah, it’s for me, it
could definitely get in there.
I mean look at the months.
One, two, three, four, five months green
and especially the last these three.
One, two, three, a very
large move in there.
I speak to this move from the lows
to the high quite frequently.
327% upside.
Very, very big move indeed.
And look, where we are right now
we’re not that far off all-time highs.
It’s not that far off.
I’ll jump back to the
weekly now and show you.
If we do break down through
this level and yeah sure,
I can see it’s getting
back on to that monthly,
no doubt at all.
It could certainly do
that but one of the things
I want to look at here is just how messy
this chart has become.
I’m going to look back
into the history of Bitcoin
and its bullish moves to see
how long we can expect to wait
from time to time.
I’m gonna go back to this 2016, ’17 run
because that was a very strong one.
If you look back here and
of sort of ’15 start of ’16
we saw a very large period.
What will be said, let’s
go from December to May.
I mean that’s a pretty long
period of time for nothing
to really occur.
And we might actually go into that.
If you consider the fact
that we had a push up
and then a consolidation,
and then the move started.
We’ve had a push up, a consolidation,
and perhaps that will be the
catalyst for our next move.
I don’t know this but what
I am looking at if the past
can represent to me our
prior to a really big move.
We could sit sideways for
quite some time, guys.
That’s the reality of
this is it certainly,
when it pulled back in and
we saw this bullish cradle,
loss or a candle and then this one.
I looked at this some okay,
if we can break the high
of this candle then we we
may just see a continuation
of this weekly uptrend.
There’s a higher low as
it broke through here.
That was at the point
that I said higher high
and that’s the point that I was suggesting
that the uptrend had kicked back in.
I’m not saying that I
took a long trade there.
That’s not what I’m trying to get across,
that’s not my message.
I said that is where the trend changed
as it broke up through this
level here we went into a weekly
uptrend and of course history
can show us that we’ve seen
a very strong move since then.
But we are definitely in a
funny little zone right now.
One of the other things that
I want to point out is this.
We have a higher low here to this.
Only by a very small
margin and a higher high.
This bullish candle here
was of interest to me.
We didn’t break the high of
that we actually pulled back
but here above 10,000, above
10,000, so on and so forth.
Good to see you Crypto Koala.
This candle here closed above 10,000.
What will this candle do?
I’m not sure.
I have to wait and see
until tomorrow morning
at 10:00 a.m. Sydney time.
But I want to bring this
up on the foreground.
The runs that we have
had since these big highs
have been getting smaller and smaller.
Now, I’m a trader that
looks for opportunity.
Most strategies are my strategies
and I’ll trade whatever’s there.
This particular trade
here, I did not take.
It was a loss one of the two, I believe.
Was is that?
Was it the two or was it just the four?
Where am I looking here?
Yeah, no, it was, yeah,
it was on the four.
I was actually at an
event so I did not capture
that short there that many people did
and did very well from that of course.
Stop move down to here.
Stopped out eventually.
Then we saw this relatively messy fall.
There’s no pull backs, no
beautiful opportunities there
in the cradle.
Then we saw this run back up
and this was on the Thursday
night three, three weeks ago.
I remember it was the Thursday
before I went to Noosa.
We saw a beautiful little cradle
candle here which ended up
being a very profitable run.
Now I haven’t had many
trades since back then
and that was a beginning of August.
It’s been a very, very
cautious month for me thus far.
Not many trades since then simply
because I haven’t had many opportunities.
We’ve seen trades setup just not trigger.
And the difficult thing as
a trader is to make sure
you don’t give your money back.
I know that when I was
learning I used to always,
well not always, but very, very frequently
have a good run and
then post that good run.
I would give a lot of those profits back
and I just, I’ve learned that lesson now.
It is something that I have
learned how to deal with.
Just because you’re not
taking trades doesn’t mean
you shouldn’t be in the market.
It just means you’ve gotta be patient.
Then we saw this fall.
Now that fall, the only
potential opportunity
that I could see through
that whole thing was this.
And it wasn’t one that I
took because I was asleep
or not there.
The 11:00 o’clock candle,
the 12:00 o’clock candle,
the next one, I had some
convergence and that break down
was nice but I did not take that.
I don’t know if anybody
did but it was a set up.
Since then, we saw another
fall after to our cradle
and now look at this higher, low, higher,
low, higher, low, higher, high.
Pulled back into the
cradle zone and failed.
What I’m getting at here
is that each of these moves
whether they be up or down, or up or down,
are getting shorter, and
shorter, and shorter.
Which means that where
we were able to find
the odd opportunity in those little runs
we no longer are able to find it.
And this for hour chart right here,
it doesn’t fill me with
any joy nor does the two.
Nor does the one.
If you note this, this
big sell-off, 15 minute.
It happened very, very
quickly and it’s been
relatively messy since then.
It was not just Bitcoin
that is also messy.
If we look at Ethereum here,
the one thing that I’ve
got to I’ve got to grapple
with myself, my own head
is that beautiful pull back
into the 61.8, $200 round number,
bearish candle in the cradle zone,
you know, it’s a nice
looking cradle there.
It could have been one
to one, I didn’t take it.
And the reason I didn’t take
it was because I saw Bitcoin
becoming bullish and I just
didn’t, I just didn’t take it.
And I’ve told the people of our trade,
with the people in the
community and whatnot
that I need to do an assessment on that.
Now I made a decision and
I stuck by that decision,
which is fine but I need to
understand if I was maybe
a little bit too, I don’t know,
maybe over the top on that.
I’ve I’ve got a rule trade what you see,
not what he think.
But the problem with crypto
is especially with something
like Ethereum, if Bitcoin
goes up so too will Ethereum,
more or less.
Not at the same rate,
but that’s very often the
case without question.
As Fiat fails could you
see the rich take refuge
accepting 90% lost verse 99% in fit.
Don’t I think it’s a long way out?
That would be a cataclysmic move
and a shift in the world as we know it.
I don’t really know.
None of my ability to predict
has anything to do with
something so severe as that.
But it will unfold over time
if that was ever to happen.
So you would, you know,
get a fair few more signs
than what we’ve got right now.
But yeah, again, coming back to Ethereum,
I didn’t take that daily candle.
I was very open to trading
this if I was to get a trade
through this breakout level.
But again, look at how
messy these charts are.
The charts right now are quite messy.
And look, the bottom line is this guys,
what I trade, it’s my money.
When you trade, it’s your money.
Now I can go long, I can go short.
If the market falls or
hedge, or short, or trade.
If the market gets higher, or short.
Sorry, or go long and
I’ll trade with margin.
What I learnt many years
ago was that direction
is all that we need.
As a trader, I just need clear direction
and I just don’t have it on the meads.
The daily, yes.
Lower low, lower high.
Haven’t made a lower low yet
but there is a much better
bit of direction there.
But the opportunity’s past.
It’s a real thing as
a trader to do nothing
and if you can’t fathom that
then you need to really
focus on your psychology.
Doing nothing is often the
best thing you can possibly do.
I’ve had a good month thus far
just off that one Bitcoin trade.
I believe I gave a little bit back.
I got a one-to-one, I think
I gave a little bit back
on a non leveraged trade on a
Binance pair against Bitcoin.
My role right now is to
focus on keeping the capital
that I have in my account
and just plucking out
the odd little gem here and there.
And that’s really what it’s all about.
So from my point of view,
Bitcoin, Ethereum, not a
great deal going on right now.
It’s a really good time to
work on your trading plans,
go through your past trades,
try and learn as much as you can,
get sharp, get ready for whether
this market goes up or down.
And if you don’t know what
you’re doing in that space
make sure you follow me
on Facebook, on YouTube,
on Twitter, all those types of things
so that you know when I go live again.
We’ll try and help you with
as much as we possibly can.
Have a fantastic evening
ladies and gentlemen.
Bye for now.

One comment

  1. Hello Trader Cobb, I found you through your appearance on Tone Vays show. I just wanted to say that I really appreciate your trading style. I like the fact that you have simplified your trading, and have a set of rules to go by. I feel that far too many traders over complicate and over analyze charts making things needlessly stressful. I am looking forward to learning from you as I love to keep things as simple and robotic as possible.

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